The Cascade Team Real Estate Blog

Home Prices to Tumble Over 25% From Peak Levels in ‘Overheated’ Markets, Says Goldman

Credit researchers at Goldman Sachs now expect home prices in several “overheated” metro areas to fall over 25% from peak levels

Metro areas included in their forecast were Seattle, Denver, Phoenix and San Diego, according to a new home-price outlook from a Goldman research team led by Lotfi Karoui.

Some of the markets at risk for the biggest price drops this year already saw at least a 10% depreciation in home price growth, according to the Goldman team. 

Nationally, the Goldman team expects home prices to fall by roughly 10% this year from June 2022 levels, following their roughly 4% estimated decline in the second half of last year.

1. There is no

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A new survey finds Americans are woefully misinformed about the nation’s mercurial housing market, even as millions of them prepare to buy homes.  

Twenty-eight million Americans plan to purchase a home in 2023, according to a survey released Tuesday by NerdWallet, the personal finance company. On average, they hope to spend $269,200. 

But that figure falls more than $100,000 short of the median home price, which was $388,100 in December, according to the real estate brokerage Redfin. Home prices crossed the $269,000 threshold sometime in 2013, Federal Reserve statistics show. 

If prospective homebuyers sound oddly optimistic about prices, that may be because they are pessimistic about the state of the housing market. Two-thirds of Americans

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 1/23/2023

Week of January 16, 2023 in Review

Recent housing data brought some better than expected news, while wholesale inflation cooled in December. The contraction in manufacturing continued this month. Here are the details:

  • Sales of Existing Homes Higher Than Expectations
  • Two Sides to Housing Starts Data
  • Is the Uptick in Builder Confidence a Turning Point for Housing?
  • Wholesale Inflation Much Cooler Than Estimates
  • Jobless Claims Continue to Reflect Slower Pace of Hiring
  • Manufacturing and Retail Sales Data Point to Economic Slowdown

Sales of Existing Homes Higher Than Expectations

 

Existing Home Sales fell 1.5% from November to December to a 4.02 million unit annualized pace, per

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NOW is ABSOLUTELY the best time!

We all know that home sellers have had the upper hand for several years, but those days are behind us, and though the market has slowed, there are still buyers out there. The difference now is that higher mortgage rates and lower affordability are limiting how much buyers can pay for a home.

Because of this, I expect listing prices to pull back further in the coming year, which will make accurate pricing more important than ever when selling a home. 

In Seattle I expect somewhere between 9 and 15% continued drop. (That’s around 1% per month but still much less than we saw in many cases last year.)

“As a side note remember we saw some areas literally increase by 100% in a single year during the pandemic.

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35.4 percent: Home sales plummet

Sales of existing homes dropped 35.4 percent between November 2021 and November 2022, when the most recent data from the National Association of Realtors was available.

The rapid rise in mortgage rates has slowed homebuying activity dramatically across the country after it reached a fever pitch during 2021, with rates hovering around 7 percent at times during November.

$928 million: Opendoor’s stunning losses

 

The iBuyer Opendoor tallied jaw-dropping losses during the third quarter of 2022, racking up just shy of a billion dollars in losses at $928 million, finding itself a victim of the slowing housing market as it was forced to sell houses for less than it purchased them.

Shortly after its

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What began as an extension of 2021’s high-flying real estate frenzy soon enough tumbled and fell to a near standstill by the Federal Reserve’s hiking of interest rates, rendering borrowing costs too pricy for most would-be homebuyers, who, no matter how hard they tried, couldn’t bend the numbers to their will. 

As rates rose, existing-home sales fell, builders pumped the brakes, price growth decelerated, and property sat on the sidelines far longer than forecasted. Real estate companies, meanwhile, braced for lean times after riding high through most of 2020 and 2021, with thousands of workers laid off and quarterly earnings reports showing losses — in some cases, to an unprecedented degree. 

To better measure an immeasurable 2022, we searched high

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 Check out this video for our new listing in Mesa, AZ

625 South Banning - Mesa, AZ 85206

 

For all the details, contact Robyn Crawford at 623.300.6747 and visit https://6506546.thecascadeteam.com/

 If you are looking for the perfect home your search is over. This 2 bedroom, 2 bath, Den, with a sparkling pool is just minutes from Superstition Springs Mall and amazing restaurants. The Lost Dutchman State Park with great hiking trails is only a 30 minute drive away with freeway access within minutes. Spring Training facilities are also just a short distance away. This home has a security door upon entering and a generous size great room with vaulted ceilings that is attached to the dining area just off the kitchen. You can enjoy your meals

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Home Prices to Tumble Over 25% From Peak Levels in ‘Overheated’ Markets, Says Goldman

Credit researchers at Goldman Sachs now expect home prices in several “overheated” metro areas to fall over 25% from peak levels

Metro areas included in their forecast were Seattle, Denver, Phoenix and San Diego, according to a new home-price outlook from a Goldman research team led by Lotfi Karoui.

Some of the markets at risk for the biggest price drops this year already saw at least a 10% depreciation in home price growth, according to the Goldman team. 

Nationally, the Goldman team expects home prices to fall by roughly 10% this year from June 2022 levels, following their roughly 4% estimated decline in the second half of last year.

1. There is

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 1/17/2023

Week of January 9, 2023 in Review

Consumer inflation continued to cool in December, but there were also more signs of an economic slowdown. Here are last week’s key headlines:

  • Consumer Inflation Continues to Ease
  • Inflation Remains Top Problem for Many Small Businesses
  • Seasonal Factors Likely Impacted Latest Jobless Claims
  • Services Sector Shows Signs of Slowdown
  • Watching an Important Recession Indicator

Consumer Inflation Continues to Ease

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on the consumer level, showed that inflation decreased by 0.1% in December. On an annual basis, inflation declined from 7.1% to 6.5%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices,

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